RESEARCH OF THE SEA PASSENGER PORT INFRASTRUCTURE MODERNIZATION TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

The efficiency of operation and interaction “sea ferry/cruise company-sea passenger port-land transport infrastructure” systems directly depends on the dynamic influence external environment, which today determines transition from deterministic models decision-making to probabilistic ones. These changes basis current trends in industry form introduction large cruise ferry ships create need a decision- making system for reasonable modernization infrastructure heads ports terminals. It is necessary systematically modernize both berthing change internal processes handling terminal. problems forecasting development seaports connection with gradual recovery traffic, caused by long period restrictions due COVID-19, are considered paper, as first priority resumption route networks sea regions, provide local mobility. Based investigated terminals evolution (Anyport model, Three Generations Workport model) it revealed that evaluate possible predictive scenarios port development. necessity having tools allowing operatively analyze situation sphere transportation model congestion has been proved. approach estimate variants berths loading at simultaneous call several big vessels mass service subsequent estimation paper. object research Baltic Sea region existing routes lines. A new theoretical partitioning into four sections proposed. systematic analysis all line each area carried out; data ship size, capacity, average ticket price, distance between have presented. On formed digital map allows investigate state network built. received proved best observed segment countries Russia-Estonia-Finland-Sweden. Presented successfully realized possibility reception two modernized during reason corresponds formation points growth region, taking account networks. generated accurately define they should be used simulation when modeling different operation, stage short-term planning solving group questions forecasting, especially relevant competition traffic.